Matt Stoller is on the ground up in WA-08 to cover Tuesday's mini-general election between Darcy Burner and Republican incumbent Dave Reichert. The election is actually a primary, but since general election foes Dino Rossi and Gov. Christine Gregoire in the gubernatorial race and Burner and Reichert in the WA-08 race will be on the same ballot on Tuesday, it's the closest thing we have to a preview of November's general election.
The purpose of the primary is to winnow the field of candidates in races across the state to two people who will appear on the November ballot.In most cases, the outcome from Tuesday's vote is in little doubt.
Rossi and Gregoire are shoo-ins for the November ballot because of their name recognition and well-funded campaigns. So are Reichert and Burner in the 8th district.
The Times does warn against reading anything into Tuesday's results.
Although more than a million people are expected to vote, the primary shouldn't be viewed as a trial run for the general election. Experience suggests a large proportion of the voters will be party loyalists. Many independents will sit out the primary."That's not a good indicator of the state," said Matt Barreto, co-director of the Washington Poll, a public-opinion survey sponsored by the University of Washington. "Especially in Washington, where the largest identification is independent."
But the fact is, a win is a win and if the unexpected happens -- i.e. Dino Rossi beats Christine Gregoire or Darcy Burner beats Dave Reichert -- the narrative could change, which could impact momentum, fundraising, media coverage, etc. That is why Rossi and Gregoire are pouring millions of dollars into what is expected to be a low turnout primary and it is why Matt Stoller is urging people to do what they can to help GOTV for Darcy on Tuesday.
[Reichert's] staffers don't express any worry about this Tuesday's mini-general election, seeing it as irrelevant. It's hard to tell if that's because they don't really care how it turns out or if Reichert doesn't have the money to compete, having been outraised for six quarters in a row. Regardless, the gubernatorial election is going to pull Republicans out on Tuesday, so Reichert doesn't have to worry about GOTV. At the same time, Darcy's the only one up on TV and she's putting out attractive twelve page mini-magazines with articles targeted at female voters. Pretty smart stuff.This Tuesday's blanket primary is pretty significant for the race. If Darcy wins, she can finally put a win on the board and psychologically change the narrative of the race. Reichert will have his money cut off as he'll be seen as a loser. If Tuesday sees a tie or a Reichert lead, the narrative will remain as it is, a toss-up or slight advantage for Reichert. I don't know if the Obama campaign or outside groups are planning to help Darcy's campaign, but this is a turnout game, so volunteers and GOTV work would be useful right now.
If you're in the area, you can help Darcy GOTV HERE. You can also give to her campaign over at ActBlue.
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