I hope.

Ok let's leave Obama out of it for a moment.

Because I think some of your assertions may be wrong, but I'll come back to those.

McCain picks a women. You assert that this would hurt the Democrats. I think this depends on which woman. Carli or another pro-lifer I don't think so much. Women who are going to vote for McCain are already here and not sure it attracts to many new female voters, some yes enough to make a difference, not so sure. He picks a pro-choice woman and his base, becomes even less interested than they are now.

McCain picks Martinez. I think this only helps with the South Florida Cuban vote. A vote that has always been at risk. Not sure if it helps with the rest of the Latino vote. You cannot equate latino vote with Cuban American Vote vastly different issues and demographic.

Cantor, hmm interesting and your right may be an issue. I really don't know enough about the guy to make a call. While he plays well in VA will he play well with the rest of the country?

OK as to your numbers; Obama maybe weak with the Cuban American vote, but not with the latino vote. As I said they are different.

From 8/13 article USNews:

In a recent survey from the Pew Research Center, Obama was leading McCain among Hispanics, 66 percent to 23 percent. Latino respondents said education, the cost of living, jobs, and healthcare were their most important issues, and favored Obama strongly over McCain on all of them. "I think people had questions at first because of the primaries, which showed that Hispanics favored Hillary Clinton by 2 to 1, but a bad economy and party ID have already converted Hispanics to Obama," says Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender -Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than- 2004.aspx

Women's vote: From recent Gallup Poll on voting women

The data reviewed here show that the explanation lies with Obama's stronger showing among white women. Whereas Bush led Kerry by 9 points among white women in 2004, McCain and Obama are now tied among this group. This gain by Obama is partially mitigated by the fact that he does slightly less well among white men than did Kerry, but the net impact of the widening gender gap overall is a gain for Obama among whites.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender -Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than- 2004.aspx

This is my take.

Obama seems to be doing much better winning over the Latino vote than any Dem in recent years (he's up +39, Kerry won this group by +9, Gore by +27).  Did you see the article in the NY Times about how non-whites will make up a majority of the US population by 2042?  While I'm still hoping Obama wins in a blowout, the 2008 election could be the first one where the Latino vote makes the crucial difference (because of Nevada and Colorado).

And whatever happens, it's pretty clear American politics is going to change a lot during the next twenty years.  The Democratic party seems destined to become a rainbow coalition (where non-whites actually cast a majority of the ballots the party receives nationally, this year that percentage might be as high as 40%).  Makes me wonder how racially polarized American politics can get.

He was born in Cuba and therefore incapable of fulfilling the main duty of the VP.

We Jews aren't stupid. McCain could pick Cantor, parade around in a Yarmulke and dance the hora 24/7 while singing Hatikvah and he still wouldn't crack 25% among Jews. And even if he did, it still wouldn't change the game in a single state. (Compare the Jewish population of Florida with any other demographic in the state and tell me a 10% swing will matter).

Not sure Obama is really threatened in the electoral war by any of these, except the over 40-ish white women's vote that are not his already.

And, my take is, there is probably nothing he can do to get that vote except put Senator Clinton on the ticket.

Which would be fine with me, but, I think the "catharsis" thing from the Clinton camp was the final nail in that coffin; it's going to be Biden is my take.

So, I believe, Obama has to fight for the Jewish vote where it matters electoral, REALLY make a play for the Latino vote where it counts, and figure the bitter older women crowd is getting ready for 2012 if he loses...

my white brethren screw everything up.

Since we are discussing process, what is the significance of this snapshot:

"Obama's winning women (+10), but not white women (-6)"

Wouldn't you need to have numbers for each State to be able to tell whether this is meaningful?

For instance, if white women in the reddest states are not for Obama in large numbers, then this statistic would be worth anything at all - except as a 'talking point' of course.

as cadboard used to post here..
and in respect to the Diarist's name
check out

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8 /15/102530/482/167/568338